Pooled trials: at most a small edge, and only for alternate-day fasting
The newest and largest synthesis is a network meta-analysis, which compares several diets at once through direct and indirect trial comparisons. It covered 99 randomised trials in 6,582 adults. Every fasting and continuous restriction strategy reduced weight compared with an unrestricted (ad-libitum) diet. Against continuous energy restriction, alternate-day fasting was the only fasting strategy to show a benefit: -1.29 kg (95% CI -1.99 to -0.59), moderate certainty. The authors conclude there is "little additional benefit for intermittent fasting" and that the benefits of any strategy "were lost in longer duration studies".1,2
On a common ad-libitum baseline, the network estimates were:
- alternate-day fasting -3.40 kg
- whole-day fasting -2.36 kg
- continuous restriction -2.11 kg
- time-restricted eating -1.72 kg
Our calculation from these inputs: alternate-day fasting sits about 1.3 kg below continuous restriction. Whole-day fasting sits about 0.25 kg below it, and time-restricted eating about 0.39 kg above it, so neither of those two patterns stands apart from continuous restriction.3
Source: Intermittent fasting strategies and their effects on body weight and other cardiometabolic risk factors: network meta-analysis, BMJ 2025;389:e082007 (2025-06-18)
Earlier pooled estimates of all intermittent fasting against continuous restriction cluster near zero and are not significant:
- 25 trials in apparently healthy adults: -0.42 kg (95% CI -0.96 to 0.13). Within this analysis, time-restricted eating alone showed -0.93 kg, while alternate-day and 5:2 fasting matched continuous restriction.
- An older review of RCTs: -0.61 kg and -0.38% of body weight.
- A 2025 pooled analysis of 11 trials: -0.41 (95% CI -1.25 to 0.42).
- 16 trials from 2011 to 2021: a difference of -0.06 (95% CI -0.18 to 0.05) in weight. Neither waist nor body fat percentage differed, overall or by fasting type or time point.
Cochrane's 2026 review compared intermittent fasting with regular dietary advice, which traditionally includes reducing calories. It required at least six months of follow-up and excluded cross-over trials. The result was little to no difference in percentage of baseline weight lost: MD -0.33 (95% CI -0.92 to 0.26; 21 studies, 1430 participants; low certainty).8,9,10
Some smaller, earlier pooled analyses did declare intermittent restriction superior:
- An 11-trial review (n = 850) reported greater weight loss, linked to short 2 to 3 month interventions.
- Zhang and colleagues reported a standardised mean difference (SMD, an effect size in units of spread rather than kilograms) of -0.21 for body weight, with no difference in BMI.
Those findings rest on short trials and standardised effect sizes. The larger and longer analyses above do not reproduce them.11,12
Duration: short-term advantages vanish by 6 to 12 months
Any advantage for fasting is a short-trial phenomenon. In the network analysis, trials under 24 weeks (n = 76) showed alternate-day fasting beating continuous restriction by -1.29 kg (-2.05 to -0.53). In trials of 24 weeks or more (n = 17), there were "no differences between intermittent fasting strategies and CER".13,14
Other pooled analyses show the same split:
- Obese adults, trials under six months (9 trials, n = 565): -0.94 kg (95% CI -1.58 to -0.31) favouring fasting.
- Obese adults, interventions planned beyond six months (5 trials, n = 423): 0.06 kg (95% CI -0.98 to 1.09), not significant.
- Healthy adults, trials under 13 weeks: -0.75 kg.
- Metabolic syndrome: an advantage below 12 weeks, but no significant difference beyond 12 weeks.
Year-long randomised trials are mostly null:
| Trial (regimen, population) | Weight result | Difference significant? | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alternate-day fasting vs daily restriction, 100 metabolically healthy obese adults | -6.8% vs -6.8% at month 6; -6.0% vs -5.3% at month 12; dropout 38% vs 29% | No | No better, and more dropout with fasting |
| Intermittent vs continuous restriction, 112 adults, BMI 30 to 45 | 8.0 kg vs 9.0 kg lost (p=0.6); regain 1.1 kg vs 0.4 kg (p=0.6) | No | Equal loss and equal maintenance |
| Intermittent vs continuous calorie restriction, follow-up at week 102 | -4.3% ± 1.0% vs -5.0% ± 1.1% | No | No advantage at about two years |
| 8-hour time-restricted eating plus calorie restriction vs daily restriction, 139 participants | -8.0 kg vs -6.3 kg at 12 months; net -1.8 kg (95% CI -4.0 to 0.4; P=0.11) | No | Eating window adds nothing proven |
| Intermittent vs continuous restriction, 137 adults with type 2 diabetes | -6.8 kg vs -5.0 kg (P=0.25); loss from month 3 maintained to month 12 | No | Similar loss, maintained |
| 4:3 fasting vs daily restriction, 165 adults, BMI 27 to 46, high-intensity behavioural programme | -2.89 kg (95% CI -5.65 to -0.14; P=0.03); -7.6% vs -5.0% | Yes | One positive trial; see calorie deficit below |
An older review also found that the two RCTs with 24-month follow-up showed no between-arm difference in weight maintenance.29
Regimen by regimen: alternate-day fasting, 5:2 and time-restricted eating
Time-restricted eating means eating only within a daily window. It is the one pattern where pooled short trials and long trials disagree:
- Eight RCTs (579 participants) of time-restricted eating plus calorie restriction versus calorie restriction alone found -1.40 kg (95% CI -1.81 to -1.00).
- In that analysis, interventions longer than 12 weeks showed -1.46 kg, but GRADE certainty (a standard rating of how much confidence the evidence supports) was low or very low for all outcomes.
- A 2026 analysis of 30 studies (1341 participants) reported -1.46 kg (95% CI -2.65 to -0.26) in isocaloric-control trials, meaning trials meant to give both arms the same calories.
The 12-month trial in the table found no significant gain from an 8-hour window. The network found time-restricted eating no better than continuous restriction.
An early time-restricted eating trial in adults with obesity found an extra -2.3 kg (95% CI -3.7 to -0.9). It found no significant difference in fat loss, fat-free mass, visceral fat or waist. Its authors argue the result is compatible with the larger null trial, because their confidence interval lies wholly within it, and because their participants extended daily fasting by 4.8 hours rather than 2.3.35,36
Alternate-day and 5:2 fasting match continuous restriction:
- A 2022 meta-analysis by Elortegui Pascual, Varady and colleagues reported mean differences of 0.26 kg overall, 0.17 kg for alternate-day fasting and 0.22 kg for 5:2. None was significant.
- The year-long 5:2 trial concluded intermittent restriction is "as effective, but not superior" for weight loss and maintenance.
- The year-long alternate-day trial concluded that fasting did not produce superior adherence, weight loss, maintenance or cardioprotection.
Where fasting wins, the calorie deficit was often larger
The one positive year-long trial also achieved a bigger calorie deficit. In the 4:3 trial, achieved calorie restriction over 12 months was -9.75% in the fasting arm versus -5.64% with daily restriction. Both arms fell short of the targeted 34.3% weekly deficit.40
Our calculation: the fasting arm's deficit was about 1.7 times larger (9.75 / 5.64), while its percent weight loss was about 1.5 times larger (7.6 / 5.0). The weight advantage is no bigger than the extra deficit would predict.
The trial's authors list five earlier year-long trials with matched deficit targets, all showing no difference.41
Unequal intake is common across the trial base:
- In 28 trials in healthy adults, intake was comparable in 17, lower in the fasting arm in 5, and not reported in 6. The authors say this "makes it difficult to compare the specific diets without the influence of differences in energy intake", and that its influence should be addressed in future studies.
- An older review notes that very low intake on fast days may lower overall intake. Two of its trials showed between-arm differences of 300 to 400 kcal, though most showed about 100 kcal.
- In a 2010 trial in young overweight women, the intermittent group reported 716 kJ less daily intake than the continuous group (-716 [-1240 to -192] kJ).
- A meta-analysis of isocaloric trials by Hamsho and colleagues found the fasting groups self-reported slightly fewer calories.
Self-report can also hide differences. In the early time-restricted eating trial, reported intake was identical between arms. Weight-loss modelling nevertheless estimated an extra 214 kcal/day deficit in the eating-window arm (95% CI -416 to -12). Where deficits were similar, the 12-month time-restricted eating trial concluded that "caloric intake restriction explained most of the beneficial effects".48,49
Adherence and dropout: similar attrition, more hunger, less persistence
Fasting does not keep more people on the diet. Across 16 trials (1,438 participants), attrition was 26.6% with intermittent restriction and 24.1% with continuous restriction. The authors conclude fasting's "attrition rate was not lower than that of CER".50,51
Individual trials point both ways:
| Comparison | Dropout, fasting arm | Dropout, continuous arm |
|---|---|---|
| Older review of trials | about 2% to 38% | 0% to 50% |
| 4:3 trial | 19.0% | 29.6% |
| Women with prior gestational diabetes | 48% | 50% |
Fasting is harder to live with:
- Hunger: 4.7 versus 3.6 on a rating scale in the 5:2-type trial.
- Pooled isocaloric trials: lower hunger with continuous restriction (SMD 0.37), less fatigue and fewer side effects, and no difference in dropouts.
- Intent to continue: only 58% of intermittent dieters planned to continue, against 85% on continuous restriction.
- Actual continuation: in another trial, 71.1% of the intermittent group had not, or only rarely, continued after the study, against 32.5% of the continuous group.
Adherence falls over time with both approaches. In the type 2 diabetes trial, compliance fell from 90% (continuous) and 97% (intermittent) in the first three months to 49% and 44% afterwards. Elortegui Pascual and colleagues report adherence in fasting trials longer than three months ranging from 8% to 73%.59,60
Fat mass, waist and metabolic markers: no consistent advantage
Body composition and cardiometabolic markers change similarly with both approaches. In the pooled healthy-adult analysis:
- Fat mass differed by -0.31 kg, which was not significant.
- Fat-free mass fell 0.20 kg more with fasting, an unwanted loss of lean tissue.
- Waist fell 0.91 cm more with fasting, but no individual fasting regimen reached significance, and heterogeneity exceeded 50%.
- Triglycerides, cholesterol, glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR (a measure of insulin resistance) and blood pressure did not differ.
- Time-restricted eating reduced fat mass more (-0.91 kg), and alternate-day fasting reduced HOMA-IR more (-0.73).
Waist and fat findings elsewhere are inconsistent:
- The network found alternate-day fasting reduced waist by 1.19 cm more than continuous restriction.
- An older review found no waist difference (-0.17 cm).
- In obese adults, fat mass favoured fasting (-1.08 kg), but waist did not differ.
The few metabolic signals are fragile:
- Glucose favoured continuous restriction (0.16), but this lost significance once outliers were removed.
- Systolic pressure favoured continuous restriction, but not once high-risk trials were excluded.
- Fasting insulin favoured intermittent restriction by -0.89 µU/mL, which its authors judged "not clinically relevant".
- The network found no association between any diet and HbA1c (a three-month average of blood glucose) or HDL cholesterol.
In the year-long trials, markers were similar between arms. The exception was LDL cholesterol, which rose 11.5 mg/dL (95% CI 1.9 to 21.1) more with alternate-day fasting by month 12. The 12-month time-restricted eating trial found similar glucose, insulin, lipid and blood pressure changes.77,78
The weight lost, not the pattern, appears to drive these changes. Authors of the healthy-adult analysis note that the loss in body weight "may be more important... than the type of diet". Trepanowski and colleagues' secondary analysis of the alternate-day trial reached the same view for body composition and adipokines (hormones released by fat tissue).79,80
Populations: overweight and obesity dominate; diabetes and other groups are thinly covered
Most evidence comes from adults with overweight or obesity, mostly women. The network's participants had a median BMI of 31.3 and were 66% female. By study count, its trials covered:
- overweight or obesity: 54 studies
- diabetes: 12 studies
- metabolic syndrome: 8 studies
- fatty liver disease: 8 studies
An older review notes most of its participants were healthy adult women and that most studies came from the same authors.81,82
Type 2 diabetes. Evidence is limited and leans slightly towards fasting without proving it. In the year-long trial, HbA1c change was equivalent between arms. Equivalence could not be shown for weight "given the large variability in weight reduction". Its authors suggest intermittent restriction "may be superior", but estimate that more than 300 participants would be needed to show it. A 2021 pooled analysis of four trials (355 participants) reported -1.70 kg favouring fasting, with similar glycaemic control and hypoglycaemic events.83,84,85,86
Fatty liver disease. Nine trials (n = 894) found -1.29 kg favouring fasting, plus a greater fall in liver fat by one imaging measure (CAP). The CAP difference lost significance after small studies were excluded. Trial durations ranged from 8 to 52 weeks.87,88,89
Metabolic syndrome. Twenty trials (1,511 participants) found -0.8 kg favouring fasting overall, and better HDL cholesterol. This advantage faded beyond 12 weeks, as shown in the duration section.90
Healthy and normal-weight adults. The "healthy adults" analyses mixed normal-weight, overweight and obese participants. Their mean BMI ranged from 22 to 40, and only five studies in one analysis included normal-weight people.91,92,93
How far the evidence can be trusted
Certainty is low to moderate, and a difference of about 1 kg either way cannot be ruled out. The network rated over 80% of its trials at low risk of bias. Even so, it downgraded certainty for heterogeneity, incoherence between direct and indirect estimates, imprecision from small trials, and indirectness, because only three trials compared fasting diets head to head.94,95
Other analyses rate bias as worse:
- Only 17.2% of trials in the healthy-adult analysis were at low risk.
- Elortegui Pascual and colleagues found moderate-to-high risk in at least one domain, with incomplete data from dropouts in nine studies. They also reported heterogeneity above 70%.
- 25% of trials in another analysis were at high risk.
- None of the isocaloric trials pooled by Hamsho and colleagues was at low risk.
Because diet trials cannot be blinded, every participant knew their arm.96,97,98,99,100
The evidence is also short:
- Only five network trials ran 52 weeks or more.
- Cochrane's included studies covered up to 12 months.
- Cochrane is moderately confident only for fasting versus no treatment, and has low to very low confidence elsewhere.
What current guidance does with this evidence
NICE guidance on overweight and obesity management, NG246 (current, with recommendations dated 2025), makes no recommendation on intermittent fasting. The committee found it was not effective for most outcomes, noted problems with the trials, and called for better-quality research.104
What NICE does require is that dietary approaches keep energy intake below expenditure, by any method. They should be offered with professional support and follow-up to maintain weight loss long term. A summary of guideline-directed obesity treatment likewise lists "intermittent or continuous calorie restriction" side by side among acceptable dietary patterns.105,106,107
What the sources gathered do not establish
- Whether weight loss or maintenance differs between intermittent fasting and continuous restriction beyond 12 months.
- Whether the comparison differs in adults with type 2 diabetes, beyond one year-long trial and a small four-trial pooled analysis.
- Whether the comparison differs in healthy normal-weight adults, since no pooled estimate separates them.
- Whether meal timing affects weight independently of total energy deficit, since few trials measured intake objectively.
- Whether the 4:3 trial's 12-month advantage replicates outside a high-intensity behavioural programme.
- Whether intermittent fasting affects hard outcomes such as cardiovascular events or diabetes incidence.