UK Heat Pump Market in 2026: Size, Growth and Drivers

These statistics are published to inform users about the number of heat pumps installed in the UK. As a statistical series still undergoing methodological development, they are published as ‘Official Statistics in development’. Their status will be kept under review. These statistics initially covered DESNZ government-supported heat pump installations only, up until December 2025. We have progressed work to develop and test new methodology to link different data in order to expand the coverage of heat pumps installed. Since March 2026, the tables in this release have been expanded to cover all retrofit installations. The statistics do not include installations in new-build properties or retrofit installations that are not Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) certified. We will continue to work to fill these gaps in future releases and work towards providing a more complete picture of total heat pump deployment in the UK, including incorporating the number of installations in new-build properties.

This publication uses data on installations certified through the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS). The MCS data includes some installations in new-build and non-domestic properties, but since MCS data does not have complete coverage of installations in these types of properties they have not been included in these statistics. What remains provides us with our best estimate of the total number of retrofit heat pump installations, which will include installations that both receive funding through government support as well as those that are self-funded.

This release presents the latest statistics on heat pump deployment up to the end of Q2 2026. It should be noted that Q2 represents quarter 2 (April to June) within these statistics. There has been a general upward trend in the number of retrofit heat pump installations; as the last full calendar year, 2025 volumes are a 9% increase on the previous year (2024; 48,857) and are over 4 and a half times higher than 5 years ago (2020, 11,327). However, the number of installations in the current year so far (2026 up to the end of Q2; 20,895) is a 22% fall compared to the same period in 2025 (26,768). When compared to the same period 5 years ago (2021 up to the end of Q2), we continue to see an upward trend, with nearly double the number of heat pump installations (10,605). (See Table 1.1).

Half-year data should remain half-year data. Doubling 20,895 produces an arithmetic annualisation, not a forecast: it assumes away seasonal patterns, policy changes and the time needed to convert new enquiries into completed work. Similarly, a first-half fall cannot establish whether the full calendar year will finish down.

For existing homes, the latest DESNZ series records 53,263 installations during 2025 . This is a flow: the number installed during a year. It is not the total number of heat pumps operating in British homes.

HPA UK reported 125,037 factory gate sales in 2025 , up 27% on 2024. Within that total, 110,353 were hydronic heat pumps . Its market estimate uses manufacturer submissions and extrapolation rather than a register of completed installations. S03

Despite this, HPA UK data for H1 2026 shows that sales of space heating heat pumps have grown by 2% from H1 2025. This has been driven by deployment into new build following confirmation of the Future Homes and Buildings Standard, with installations in new build properties 23% higher in H1 2026 than H1 2025.

UK Heat Pump Installations by Year Year Installations Year-on-Year Growth Cumulative Installed Base 2020 ~35,000 - ~180,000 2021 ~55,000 +57% ~235,000 2022 ~72,000 +31% ~307,000 2023 ~130,000 +81% ~437,000 2024 ~195,000 +50% ~632,000 2025 ~250,000 +28% ~780,000 2028 (target) 600,000 - ~2,500,000 Data from MCS certified installations, supplemented by DESNZ and industry estimates.

The main difference should be accounted for by: Definitional differences: HPA UK are counting sales and the DESNZ statistics count installations. There will be an inevitable lag between a sale taking place and it being installed in a property. Given that installations are on a general upward trend, we would expect that the number of sales will always be higher than the number of installations, as production and sales prepare for future (growing) demand.

Technologies in scope: The DESNZ statistics only include air source and ground source heat pumps at the moment. The HPA UK estimates include some other technologies, such as heat pumps used for hot water only, which are not included in the DESNZ statistics. Removing the numbers in the ‘Other heat pumps’ and ‘DHWP’ categories brings them to be more comparable to the DESNZ figures (an adjustment of ~19k in 2025).

Property types: the DESNZ installation statistics do not include installations in new-builds or non-domestic properties, which will be included in the HPA UK numbers. New-builds will represent the biggest part of the difference between the HPA UK and DESNZ numbers.

Do not add these series together: they overlap. An especially tempting mistake is to subtract installations from sales and call the difference “unsold heat pumps”. The series have different technology, building and timing boundaries. Such a subtraction cannot identify stock sitting in warehouses.

Study Period 2020 - 2031 Forecast Data Period 2026 - 2031 Base Year Market Size (2025) USD 4.71 Billion Market Size (2026) USD 5.21 Billion Market Size (2031) USD 8.87 Billion Growth Rate (2026 - 2031) 11.24 %

UK: HEAT PUMP MARKET, BY END USER, 2025-2030 Segment 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 CAGR (%) COMMERCIAL 687.5 760.6 854 975.1 1134.6 1348.7 14.4 INDUSTRIAL 401 441.8 494.1 561.8 650.9 770.3 13.9 RESIDENTIAL 2569.9 2858.4 3226.5 3703.6 4332.4 5177.4 15 TOTAL 3658.3 4060.8 4574.6 5240.5 6117.9 7296.4 14.8

Benchmark comparison for United Kingdom Heat Pumps Market Source Market Size Gaps in Research Methodology Mordor Intelligence USD 4.71 B (2025) Industry Association A USD 1.24 B (2024) Uses factory-gate unit sales for hydronic heat pumps and does not translate consistently into full market value, which can exclude installed-system pricing and non-unit revenue elements counted in value-based sizing. Trade Journal B USD 6.10 B (2026) Often applies broader product coverage and a more optimistic price progression, and the base year and currency timing can differ, which shifts reported USD totals even before forecast assumptions are compared.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

This market covers heat pump equipment sold and installed in the United Kingdom, measured in value (USD). It includes the main technologies used for heating and cooling, and counts revenues tied to heat pump systems serving buildings and selected industrial needs. Scope exclusions: we do not count air-to-air units in the market total, since this study focuses on the equipment categories tracked under mainstream clean-heat deployment and reporting in the country.

Year Certified domestic retrofits Annual change 2018 7,406 - 2019 10,358 +39.9% 2020 11,327 +9.4% 2021 23,548 +107.9% 2022 26,416 +12.2% 2023 32,686 +23.7% 2024 48,857 +49.5% 2025 53,263 +9.0% Source: What Heat Pump calculations from DESNZ Table 1.1. S01 The 2025 total was 4.7 times the 2020 total. However, growth slowed from 49.5% in 2024 to 9.0% in 2025 , on this revised series. Those rates describe certified domestic retrofits, not manufacturers’ sales. The distinction also explains why an older report may give a different historical total without having made a mistake at the time. Administrative records can arrive late, and the classification of buildings can improve. DESNZ updated address matching and domestic-property identification in the September release. Its series remains Official Statistics in development . S01a

There were 20,895 certified domestic retrofit installations in January-June 2026, compared with 26,768 in January-June 2025. That is 5,873 fewer installations , a fall of 21.9% . The same period in 2021 recorded 10,605 , so the longer-term comparison still shows a near doubling. S01

Low-carbon heating in existing homes: around 52,000 heat pumps were installed in existing homes in 2025, an increase of 7% compared to 2024. This is a significant slow-down in growth compared to the 56% growth seen the year before. The Warm Homes Plan aims for 450,000 heat pump installations per year by 2030, of which around 250,000 are expected to be retrofit. Installation rates will need to be higher than this to deliver the emissions reductions in the CBGDP.

Whilst today’s statistics show an 18% decrease in domestic retrofit heat pump deployment between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, this is not the full picture.

Retrofit remains the more difficult part of the heat transition. The UK government has set out an ambition for 450,000 heat pump installations a year, but current rates remain much lower. The tracker shows that heat pump installations in existing homes grew steadily until the beginning of last year, but this growth has now stalled. Installations declined by 5% over 2025 from the peak in Q1, while early data for the first quarter of this year suggests a further decline unless March installations are significantly higher than January and February combined. This comes in the context of declining installations through the Energy Company Obligation scheme, as it closes, and flat uptake through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme.

In 2025, just over 60,000 MCScertified heat pumps were installed.7 Achieving the CCC’s targets will therefore require exponential growth in the market over the coming decade.

The government’s current Warm Homes Plan ambition is 450,000 installations per year by 2030 . The Climate Change Committee describes approximately 250,000 of these as retrofits . These are different figures from the previous government’s 600,000-per-year ambition for 2028, which should not be presented as the current target. S07 S08

The revised 2025 domestic retrofit total of 53,263 is 21.3% of 250,000 . Reaching 250,000 in 2030 from that baseline would require annual volumes to grow by approximately 36.2% each year for five years , if growth were constant. That is a calculation of the scale of change, not a prediction that it will happen. The formula is (250,000 ÷ 53,263)^(1 ÷ 5) - 1 .

The number of heat pumps installed in 2025 under the BUS grew by 38% compared to 2024, reaching 31,200. The number of heat pumps installed using UK funding for low-income homes fell by 21%, from 21,400 in 2024 to 16,900 in 2025. [132] 80% of these were installed through the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) scheme, a policy which has now been cancelled. Over the last three years, installations under ECO accounted for around a third of the overall retrofit market. Without a replacement policy in place, heat pump installations could fall significantly in 2026.

Urgently addressing the gap left by the closure of the ECO scheme. In the last three years, this scheme accounted for around a third of retrofit heat pump installations in the UK, providing targeted support for low-income households. Without a sufficient replacement, installations could fall significantly this year.

4.3 Household energy bills - The government is not continuing the funding of the Energy Company Obligation on bills after March 2026 and is announcing £1.5 billion of new funding to support households facing fuel poverty. The government will also fund 75% of the cost of the Renewables Obligation to households in 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29.

Since the start of the scheme in 2022, more than one in four MCScertified air source heat pump installations have been delivered through ECO, underlining its importance to the market and the risks that its removal poses to supply chains and market confidence.

Heat pump installations, however, were 17% lower than the first half of 2025. With three quarters of heat pump installations funded by government programmes such as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), it highlights the important role these schemes play in helping households access low-carbon heating.

While the Warm Homes Plan has committed overall funding of £1 billion per year to support upgrading the homes of low-income households, this is a significant decrease in investment, and the Government is yet to set out details of how this funding will be spent.

While the Warm Homes Plan, launched in January 2026, confirms the intention to replace ECO with a new centralised low-income energy efficiency scheme,59 the absence of detailed design and a clear timetable could result in a hiatus in delivery. Rapid clarity on the structure and launch of the new scheme will be essential to avoid a gap in support for low-income households.

It’s fantastic to see a record number of renewable installs, however it’s disappointing that MCS certified heat pump installations are not following this trend. The closure of the Energy Company Obligation and slower deployment of heat pumps through the Warm Homes: Social Housing Fund are directly impacting the domestic retrofit market and supply chain.

The closure of the Energy Company Obligation and slower deployment of heat pumps through the Warm Homes: Social Housing Fund are directly impacting the domestic retrofit market. To maintain confidence, support investment and ensure heat pumps remain accessible to all, Government must urgently clarify future support for low-income households and introduce the zero/low-interest consumer loans promised in the Warm Homes Plan.

Growth outside the domestic retrofit market has been driven by sales into new build following confirmation of the Future Homes and Buildings Standard. Installations in new build properties were 38% higher in Q1 2026 than Q1 2025, with the share of heat pump sales going into new builds rising from 55% to 61% between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.

there has been good progress on installing low-carbon heating in new properties, with 25% of all new homes being built with a heat pump in 2025 (Figure 3.4a). England and Wales are implementing revised building regulations that require low-carbon heating in new buildings, while Scotland has already put these rules into force. The regulations in England and Wales come into force from March 2027 with a transition period, meaning all new homes should be built with low-carbon heating by the end of the decade.

Across England, Wales and Scotland, the proportion of new homes being built with heat pumps has continued to rise steadily. For the past year, more than one in five new homes across all three nations has included a heat pump.

Heat pumps are present in at least 34% of recent new homes in the south of England, reaching 43% in the East of England so far this year. Regions in the Midlands and North are much further behind. Here, less than 20% of homes are built with heat pumps, other than Yorkshire and the Humber, which jumped from 18% in the first quarter of the year to 26% so far this quarter. London bucks this trend with the lowest rate of installations of any region (10%), but this is likely down to a greater number of developments of flats with heat networks, as well as smaller homes with direct electric heating.

(2) Subject to paragraph (3), these Regulations come into force on 24th March 2027. (3) Regulations 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 and 9 come into force in relation to HRB work or work to existing HRB on 24th September 2027. (4) These Regulations extend to England and Wales and apply to buildings and building work in England.

(1) This paragraph applies to building work on a particular building where a building notice, an initial notice or an application for building control approval with full plans has been given to the relevant authority in respect of that building before 24th March 2027, provided that the building work to which the notice or application relates is commenced in relation to that building before 24th March 2028.

in March 2026, the Government announced that regulations have been put in place to implement the Future Homes Standard and Future Buildings Standard. This requires all new buildings in England and Wales to be constructed with low-carbon heating, with regulations coming into force in 2027, subject to a 12-month transition period. Despite delays, this is a positive step forward that will soon ensure that no new buildings are being constructed with fossil fuel heating systems.

The Future Homes Standard applies only to new-build homes in England. Existing homes are not required to retrofit to FHS standards.

Revisions to Building Regulations to implement the Future Homes and Buildings Standards have been delayed, and the proposed transition arrangements mean that buildings will still be constructed with fossil fuel boilers in 2027. This will increase emissions and costs, as these buildings will require retrofitting to eliminate emissions from buildings by 2050 (see Box 3.4).

The Future Homes Standard (FHS) is the 2026 update to Part L (Conservation of Fuel and Power) of the Building Regulations for England, published in March 2026. It requires all new homes to produce at least 75% lower carbon emissions than homes built to the 2013 standards, effectively mandating heat pumps, solar PV, and significantly improved building fabric.

The Future Homes Standard, implemented in 2025, requires new houses to cut carbon emissions by up to 80% relative to 2013 baselines, effectively locking heat pumps into all future residential constructions.

The Future Homes Standard applies to new UK builds from 2025: Gas boilers banned in new builds. All new homes must use low-carbon heating - effectively heat pump (some new builds use direct electric or district heating but heat pump dominant). SAP 10 calculation - updated Standard Assessment Procedure includes heat pump efficiency calculations + lifecycle carbon assessment. Fabric First standards - U-values for walls, roof, floor, glazing significantly tighter than 2013 Part L baseline. Air tightness - 5 m3/h/m2 vs older 10 m3/h/m2; combined with MVHR (Mechanical Ventilation Heat Recovery) for ventilation. Photovoltaics + renewables - heat pump often paired with rooftop PV by design. Result: new build heat pump installs designed into the property from day one, with envelope tuned for heat pump efficiency. Very different starting point from retrofit.

From 2026, the Future Homes Standard effectively ends the fitting of gas boilers in new homes in England. The policy expects new builds to produce around 75-80% fewer carbon emissions than those built to older regulations, and in practice that means the heat pump becomes the default heating system for almost every new plot. This is the single biggest reason the "new build vs retrofit" question is shifting. Increasingly, if you buy new, the decision is made for you - a heat pump comes with the house. The relevant question is no longer whether you'll get one, but whether the developer specified and commissioned it properly.

New build heat pump deployment and workforce projections are the same in both scenarios because, assuming the FHS and Part L 2025 Standards (Wales) are introduced, in addition to the SNBHS, all new build homes will be required to meet the updated Building Regulations, which will drive growth in heat pump deployment. By contrast, Building Regulations are not expected to be such a key driver in the retrofit sector (under the current policy landscape). Instead, retrofit installations are expected to be driven by a mix of government policy schemes, such as Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), Energy Company Obligation (ECO) and CHMM, and (in the case of Scenario 2), organic market growth.

Annual housing supply in England amounted to 208,600 net additional dwellings in 2024-25, a 6% decrease on 2023-24. This resulted from 190,600 new build homes, 17,710 gains from change of use between non-domestic and residential, 3,850 from conversions between houses and flats and 1,080 other gains (caravans, house boats, etc), offset by 4,630 demolitions.

Air-to-water systems accounted for 20,705 of the 20,895 installations , or 99.1% . Ground/water-source systems accounted for the remaining 190 . This shows how strongly the recorded retrofit market is concentrated in air-to-water technology. It does not establish the technology mix of all heat pumps sold. S01

The majority of retrofit heat pump installations in 2026 up to the end of Q2 were of Air-to-Water Heat Pumps (AWHPs) (99%), which has increased from 93% of installations when compared to the same period 5 years ago (2021 up to the end of Q2). (See Table 1.1).

This chart shows that of the 59,486 grants paid to date, 57,866 or 97.3% were for air source heat pumps (ASHP). There were 1,256 (2.1%) grants paid for ground source heat pumps (GSHP), 335 (0.6%) for biomass boilers, and 29 (0.05%) for shared ground loop (SGL) GSHPs. ASHP 57,866 (97.3%) GSHP 1,256 (2.1%) GSHP (SGL) 29 (0.05%) Biomass 335 (0.6%)

The association’s headline series includes air-to-water monobloc and split units, ground/water-source systems, domestic hot-water heat pumps and other specified products. It excludes air-to-air heat pumps. That exclusion matters when comparing the UK with countries where reversible air conditioners are widely used for heating. S09

The BUS will continue to provide grants of £7,500 towards the upfront cost of installing hydronic heat pumps to eligible applicants in England and Wales. It will also provide new £2,500 grants towards the cost of installing air-to-air heat pumps and heat batteries for central heating.

Fossil-fuel hybrids remain ineligible. Keeping the old gas, oil or LPG boiler as part of the proposed heating or hot-water system can prevent a BUS award.

Our aim is that by 2030 the heat pump market will have expanded to over 450,000 annual installations, as heat pumps increasingly become the desirable and natural choice for households replacing an existing heating system at the end of its life, and as the FHS and Future Buildings Standard (FBS) ensure that new homes and buildings have low-carbon heating as standard.

All eligible households [footnote 2] in England and Wales can benefit from the expanded Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), funded with £2.7 billion to 2030, alongside a new zero and low-interest loan offer, backed with an initial £2 billion of government support and delivered in partnership with the private sector.

1.01 The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is a government scheme that provides upfront grants to help reduce the cost of installing a low-carbon heating system, such as a heat pump or, in limited circumstances, a biomass boiler, in properties in England and Wales. 1.02 The grant is applied upfront as a discount to the cost of your installation. You do not receive the grant directly - it is paid to your installer and reflected in your quote and invoice. The grant values are: • £7,500 for air-to-water heat pumps (AWHP) and ground source heat pumps (GSHP) • £2,500 for air-to-air heat pumps (AAHP) • £5,000 for biomass boilers • £9,000 for air-to-water or ground source heat pumps in off-gas grid properties replacing a heating system fuelled by oil, or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (available from 21 July 2026 until 31 March 2027).

Version 5.1 of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme: Guidance for Property Owners is the current version and applies to applications 'properly made' on or after 28 April 2026, when regulation changes came into effect.

The scheme has been extended to 2030. Changes applying from 28 April 2026 removed the blanket requirement for a valid Energy Performance Certificate, or EPC, and introduced more flexibility around permitted non-fossil supplementary heating. The temporary £9,000 category applies to qualifying applications properly made from 21 July 2026 to 31 March 2027. It is specifically for eligible oil and LPG replacements. An off-grid home with electric heating does not qualify for this uplift merely because it lacks mains gas. Air-to-air is now a published £2,500 residential grant category, but an eligible certified installation is still essential.

The plan will be delivered through a new Warm Homes Agency, consolidating functions currently distributed across the energy regulator Ofgem and other bodies. Regional mayors will lead local rollout, though details on financing mechanisms and consumer access to loans are expected to be finalised later in 2026.

Regulation 8 updates the low-carbon heat target for scheme years beginning 1st April 2026 until the target is amended again for future scheme years. The new target will be 8% of relevant boiler sales.

A scheme participant which has insufficient certificates to meet its low-carbon heat target in accordance with regulation 25 (1) for a scheme year must make a payment to the administrator, on or before 30th November following the end of the scheme year, of £500 in respect of each unit of its low-carbon heat target which is unmet.

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is available to households in England and Wales. Proposals to increase minimum energy efficiency requirements for gas boilers and heat pumps are specific to Great Britain. The Clean Heat Market Mechanism will apply across the UK. Permitted development reforms for air source heat pumps will apply in England.

The UK’s temporary 0% VAT treatment for some energy-saving materials, including heat pump and biomass boiler installation, is due to run until 31 March 2027. The VAT treatment can reduce the invoice compared with a 20% VAT installation, but it is not a separate cash grant and the final effect depends on the quoted works.

The government’s Warm Homes Plan represents a major intervention in domestic energy efficiency, clean heat and household energy costs. With £15 billion of public funding committed this Parliament (Figure 1), the Plan aims to cut energy bills permanently, tackle fuel poverty and accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies across the housing stock.

Government grants and low-interest loans will overcome the cost barrier for some households (see Section 5.2.4). However, costs remain an obstacle, and the Government has only committed to funding grants until 2030.

A scheme participant’s low-carbon heat target for a scheme year is the number of units which is equal to the sum of- (a) [ F5 8% ] of the number of gas boilers in excess of 19,999 of which the scheme participant is the supplier and which are the subject of a qualifying sale during the scheme year; and (b) [ F6 8% ] of the number of oil boilers in excess of 999 of which the scheme participant is the supplier and which are the subject of a qualifying sale during the scheme year.

(1) The supplier of a stand-alone heat pump acquires a certificate for a scheme year for each stand-alone heat pump- (a) of which it is the supplier; and (b) which is installed during that scheme year. (2) The supplier of a hybrid heat pump acquires half a certificate for a scheme year for each hybrid heat pump- (a) of which it is the supplier; and (b) which is installed during that scheme year.

Introducing a reformed Clean Heat Market Mechanism on 1 April 2025, with new changes to make sure manufacturers have the time they need to scale up supply chains, making heat pumps an even more attractive choice for households and boosting sales without penalising those buying a new gas boiler. There will also be government support available for each and every heat pump installation that is required under the mechanism in 2025 to 2026

Combined with the government’s 600,000-unit annual installation target for 2028, these policy levers push manufacturers to redirect R&D away from condensing boilers toward advanced heat-pump platforms.

In both scenarios, annual heat pump installations are projected to increase significantly by 2028 - 623% in Scenario 1 and by 896% in Scenario 2. In Scenario 2 across the entire period annual heat pump installations will need to increase by 2,556% from 2023 levels to 2035. In the first period of Scenario 2, between 2023 and 2028, annual installations will need to increase by 896% between to reach the Government’s 600,000 installations target, and then a further 167% between 2028 and 2035 to meet the 1.6 million installations target.

A central objective of the Strategy is to develop a market capable of delivering a minimum of 600 thousand hydronic heat pump installations annually by 2028. To support this target, a government subsidy of up to £7500 per household was allocated in England and Wales to incentivise consumer (this study uses users, consumers, adopters, and homeowners interchangeably.) adoption [3].

Version 5.1 also contains updated guidance relating to the uplifted grant value, and these updates will apply to applications properly made on or after 21 July 2026.

From 21 October 2026, homeowners heating with oil or LPG who are not connected to the gas grid can claim a £9,000 BUS grant instead of the standard £7,500. This applies until 31 March 2027, after which the grant reverts to £7,500 unless extended by the government. For an oil or LPG user facing a £10,000-18,000 heat pump installation, the £9,000 grant is transformative - potentially leaving a net cost of just £1,000-9,000. This is the largest single uplift in the scheme’s history and represents a significant policy shift aimed at the 4 million homes in the UK that are not connected to the gas grid.

Installation and grants This article focuses on running costs, not installation, but a brief mention is warranted. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme offers £7,500 for air-source heat pump installations for most homes, and from 21 October 2026, a temporary £9,000 grant for off-gas-grid homes currently on oil or LPG 5. Combined with 0% VAT on domestic heat pump installations (since April 2022), the net installation cost is typically £3,500-7,500. For oil/LPG users, the grant often covers a significant portion of the installation cost, and the running cost savings (£500-1,200/year) provide a realistic payback period of 5-8 years - well within a heat pump’s 15-20 year lifespan.

The scheme received 7,486 applications in August 2026 , compared with 3,401 in August 2025 : an increase of 120.1% . August was below July’s 8,150 , but remained the second-highest application month since launch in this release. There were 3,260 paid redemptions in August across all technologies. S02 Those summer figures and the earlier fall in retrofit installations are not contradictory. They refer to different months, cover different populations and measure different stages. A stronger pipeline may lead to more installations later; it is not itself proof that completed installations have recovered.

By the end of August 2026, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme had received 151,136 voucher applications and paid 93,364 redemptions , including biomass boilers. Removing biomass leaves 92,943 paid heat pump grants . S02

These statistics are provisional and are subject to future revisions.

4.54 BUS vouchers can only be redeemed within set validity periods. This means that your installer must complete the work, commission the system, and redeem the BUS voucher: • within 3 months for air-to-water heat pumps, air-to-air heat pumps, and biomass boilers • within 6 months for ground-source heat pumps 4.55 If installation cannot be completed on time, your installer may need to withdraw the voucher and apply for a new one. You will then need to provide consent again, and may also need to provide any updated evidence, such as utility bills.

There are some tentative signs of renewed momentum in the latest Boiler Upgrade Scheme statistics. Applications have grown each month this year from a low base, with a 20% increase from February to March. This may translate into higher installation figures in April and May. With installers reporting increased consumer interest in moving away from gas in response to international energy market uncertainty, future tracker updates will show whether this translates into a sustained increase in installations.

In recent years, around one-third of UK homeowners indicated that they might consider installing a heat pump, a high rate considering the small proportion of homes (less than 2%) already using heat pumps. [134]; [135] Recent oil price increases and growing uncertainty over future energy prices have sparked an increase in enquiries and sales for rooftop solar and heat pumps. [136]; [137]; [138]

For households on a standard tariff, the electricity-to-gas price ratio has risen from 3.9:1 in Q2 2025 to 4.3:1 in Q2 2026, before falling to 3.6:1 in Q3 2026. For households on a time-of-use tariff, the effective price of electricity is lower.

The Government’s removal of some policy costs from electricity bills in November 2025 contributed to the electricity-to-gas ratio decreasing from 4.7:1 in Q1 2026 to 4.3:1 in Q2 2026. While this was a welcome step, the electricity-to-gas price ratio increased from 3.9:1 in Q2 2025, due in part to falls in the wholesale cost of gas before the Iran war (see Section 3.2.3). [384] As of May 2026, the ratio for Q3 2026 is due to be 3.6:1, with prices reflecting the impact of the Iran war.

At current Ofgem rates, the ratio remains too high for homes on standard fixed tariffs to save money by switching to a heat pump. Policy costs, such as the remaining Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariffs, and levies that remain on electricity bills, should be removed (see Section 4.1.1, Section 4.3.7 and Section 5.2.5).

Energy price cap per unit and standing charge 1 July to 30 September 2026 Energy price cap per unit and standing charge 1 October to 31 December 2026 Electricity 26.11 pence per kWh 57.19 pence daily standing charge 26.32 pence per kWh 54.83 pence daily standing charge Gas 7.33 pence per kWh 29.04 pence daily standing charge 7.97 pence per kWh 29.68 pence daily standing charge

Figures are rounded to two decimal places and include 5% VAT on gas. There is no VAT on electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. Costs cannot be compared directly to previous periods because of this change.

The government has removed VAT from electricity bills from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. As a result, VAT is not included in electricity bills for people covered under the energy price cap between 1 October and 31 December 2026. You will still pay 5% VAT for gas.

For an equal amount of useful heat, a simple variable-cost comparison is: Heat pump cost per unit of heat = electricity unit price ÷ SPF Gas boiler cost per unit of heat = gas unit price ÷ boiler efficiency Therefore: Break-even SPF = electricity-to-gas unit-price ratio × boiler efficiency The table assumes a 90% efficient gas boiler . These are transparent scenarios, not claims about today’s tariff or the efficiency of every boiler. Electricity costs this much relative to gas SPF needed to match variable heating cost 2.5 times 2.25 3.0 times 2.70 3.5 times 3.15 4.0 times 3.60 4.5 times 4.05 5.0 times 4.50 Source: What Heat Pump calculations. Excludes standing charges, maintenance, financing and installation costs. S16 (publishing package)

On the July 2026 cap the break-even SCOP is about 3.2. Below that, gas is cheaper to run; above it, the heat pump pulls ahead. A heat-pump-friendly time-of-use tariff lowers your effective electricity rate, which drops the break-even SCOP and can make the heat pump comfortably cheaper.

From 1 October to 31 December 2026, the energy regulator’s price cap sets electricity at 26.32p/kWh and gas at 7.97p/kWh, giving a ratio of approximately 3.56:1 1.

Due in part to policy costs on electricity, the typical household on a gas boiler would currently face additional costs by switching to a heat pump alone, even under prices following the start of the Iran war (Figure 5.4). The same is true for a representative high-income household (Figure 5.5). The rural household with an oil boiler also faces additional costs by switching to a heat pump before the Iran war (Figure 5.5). This is not the case following the start of the Iran war due to the high heating oil prices. The low-income household archetype sees a saving switching to a heat pump, due to larger grant support.

If a typical household on a gas boiler chooses to switch to a heat pump, solar panels, and a time-of-use tariff together, they save £460 on combined upfront and running costs (Figure 5.4). This saving is even larger in the context of prices following the start of the Iran war. A similar pattern is true for our high-income, low-income, and rural household archetypes.

Removal of remaining policy costs (Renewables Obligation, Feed-in Tariff, and Warm Homes Discount) and legacy CfD costs would bring down the electricity-to-gas price ratio to 3.1:1 under prices following the start of the Iran war. This would be almost enough for a typical household with a £7,500 grant to break even on lifetime cost if they installed a heat pump with a SCOP of 2.94 (in line with our Seventh Carbon Budget advice), on a standard tariff for heating (Table 5.3).

Not all households are in a position to adjust their heating demand and benefit from time-of-use tariffs (for heating). It is unclear how many households are sufficiently well-insulated or have sufficient access to energy storage capacity to adjust their heating demand sufficiently for time-of-use tariffs to make their heat pumps cheaper than a gas boiler. Currently around two-thirds of domestic electricity connections have a smart meter, which is required to access time-of-use tariffs.

At the Budget, the government took action to cut the cost of living and announced plans to take an average £150 of costs off people’s energy bills from April 2026. This is on top of extending the £150 WHD to a further 2.7 million of the poorest households with almost 6 million households now eligible for the discount.

An average heat pump user can expect to see savings of over £200 from April and a high use electric storage heated household will save £442.

For BUS-supported installations in England and Wales, the median reported air-to-water installation cost was £12,908 in Q2 2026 . The equivalent ground-source median was £27,232 . These are gross installation costs, with the grant included in the reported total rather than already deducted. S02 Technology Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Air-to-water £11,128 £12,908 £15,627 Ground source £18,136 £27,232 £42,110 Source: BUS Table Q1.1A. S02

Subtracting the standard £7,500 grant from the £12,908 air-to-water median gives £5,408 . This is an illustrative calculation, not a separately observed median household payment. Grant eligibility, work outside the installation quote and the household’s actual price still matter. It would be misleading to label that figure “the cost of a heat pump in the UK”. It uses an England-and-Wales scheme sample from one quarter, and the right-hand side of a quote can change considerably with the home and installation design.

A like-for-like gas boiler replacement - removing an existing unit and installing a new modern condensing model - typically costs £1,700-3,500 depending on the boiler size, brand, and whether any pipework or controls need upgrading. There are no government grants for gas boiler replacements.

Since the BUS was launched in 2022, there has already been an 11% real terms reduction in installation costs.

Installing a heat pump for the first time can involve additional work, such as upgrading radiators, altering pipework and/or installing a hot-water cylinder, creating a higher upfront ‘transition cost’ compared with a like-for-like boiler replacement.16 While the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) in England and Wales17 and the Home Energy Scotland18 grant help to reduce these upfront costs, the overall economic case for households ultimately depends on achieving lower running costs over the lifetime of the system.19

While our analysis factors in the financing costs different households will face, households may be deterred by the upfront costs of a heat pump that remain after the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) grant, especially in the context of a high cost of living. In addition, the savings from adding a heat pump to a home with solar panels and time-of-use tariffs are relatively small and will be affected by small changes in electricity and gas prices, heat pump efficiency, or heat pump upfront costs. This, alongside the non-financial barriers to installing a heat pump (see Section 4.3.3), means larger savings from heat pumps may be needed for the switch to be worthwhile for some households.

Engagement with the installers revealed several issues that led the homeowners to reconsider their immediate plan to install a heat pump. The challenges encountered are summarised in Table 3. First, there was a shortage of installers with the capability to offer integrated retrofit services including a heat pump system and underfloor heating. Second, most installer businesses were small with a limited number of key technical personnel, who were typically overloaded. Third, there was a lack of practical experience to address technical questions that extended beyond the guidance published by government sources. This gap was more problematic in retrofit contexts, where each project has unique constraints and requirements. Fourth, pricing transparency was limited. All companies quoted the upper cost estimates in the government grant scheme. Notably, after the grant value increased by £2500 in October 2023, total quoted costs rose by a similar amount, effectively absorbing the additional funding rather than reducing costs for the consumer.

Overall, in Winter 2024, 55% of people living in owner-occupier households said that they were unlikely to install at least one of the four different types of low carbon heating systems if they needed to replace their heating system (this has remained stable over time). This subgroup was asked their reasons for their reluctance to install one or more low-carbon heating system (Figure 4.5). The most common barrier was concern about the cost of installation (50%). This was followed by a perception that it might not be possible to install in their home (41%, up from 35% in Winter 2023) and a preference to wait to see how the technology develops in time (36%). Other barriers included concerns about running costs (33%), because they were happy with their existing system (29%), and not knowing enough about the heating systems (27%, down from 32%) [footnote 2] .

Focussing on the proportion who agreed/disagreed with each statement about low carbon heating systems (LCHS): 45% agreed that ‘LCHS are expensive to install’ (up from 38% in Winter 2023), while 2% disagreed. 18% agreed that ‘LCHS would heat people’s homes better than the conventional systems’ (no change from Winter 2023, up from 15% in Winter 2021), while 14% disagreed (up from 12% in Winter 2023). 21% agreed that ‘LCHS are cheaper to run than conventional systems’ (no change from Winter 2023, up from 16% in Winter 2021), while 12% disagreed (up from 8% in Winter 2023). 12% agreed that ‘LCHS are less reliable than conventional systems’ (no change from Winter 2023, up from 10% in Winter 2021), while 12% disagreed (up from 9% in both Winter 2023 and 2021).

There are currently around 10,000 trained and active heat pump installers in the market today. Many of these installers continue to work on gas boilers, alongside their growing heat pump customer base, resulting in approximately 4000 full time equivalent (FTE) installers. To keep pace with future heat pump demand, the workforce would need to increase to approximately 12,000 FTE installers by 2030, which represents a threefold increase.

Whilst the number of qualified heat pump installers has grown over time, there are still less than 30,000 qualified installers across the UK, compared to over 130,000 gas-safe engineers. For the heat pump market to grow at the pace required, there needs to be rapid training of heat pump installers.

HPA UK data shows that nearly 30,000 individuals have completed a recognised training course

With over 7,800 individuals completing a recognised heat pump qualification in 2023, a 133% increase on 2022 levels, and 9,062 trained in 2024, a 15% increase on 2023 levels, interest in the training is growing19. Additionally, HPA members have over 260 UK wide training sites which in total have the capacity to deliver in the region of 30,000 training places for recognised heat pump training courses. This showcases the capability of the sector to train the new and existing workforce and demonstrates the availability and provision of courses are not the limiting factors in this instance.

MCS data shows that there are 2,217 certified MCS contractors

Current Workforce Size 15,000-20,000 qualified individuals 8,000-10,000 MCS-certified companies 30,000-40,000 needed for 600k/yr target ~50% current gap

The country employs as few as 4,000 certified heat-pump installers, but reaching 600,000 annual installations demands at least 27,000 technicians by 2028. Roughly 39% of trainees exit the trade before their first installation, citing low early-career volumes and high compliance overhead. Rural customers have reported six-to-twelve-month waits for quotations, throttling market momentum in 2024 and 2025. Although the Heat Training Grant offsets course fees, income volatility and administrative burden still curtail workforce expansion, creating a material drag on the United Kingdom heat pumps market through mid-decade.

low customer demand as the top barrier to installing more heat pumps

The Heat Training Grant (HTG) provides heating engineers with grants of up to £500 towards eligible heat pump or heat network installation training in England.

The government also acknowledges the wider concerns that have been raised about the performance of MCS and the cost and administrative burden associated with MCS certification, particularly for smaller installer businesses. The government will continue to monitor the implementation of the redeveloped MCS scheme, which aims to reduce bureaucracy and place greater focus on delivered quality.

HPA UK Installer Members recognise the value of certification in maintaining installation quality and consumer protection. However, many describe certification and compliance as overly complex, duplicative or administratively burdensome.

Heat pumps [footnote 49] - 2/3rds of the installer workforce aged 45 or over (2023) - 95% are male and white (2023) - 7% are disabled (2023) - Nearly 95% of heating and cooling businesses are sole traders or microbusinesses (2023)

The report assumes an activity rate of around 61% - to determine a ratio between trained and active individuals qualified to install heat pumps and all individuals qualified to install heat pumps. This means of those that are trained, 39% are not expected to enter the workforce to install heat pumps. This activity rate is modelled to increase in proportion to the increase in labour utilisation rate until 2028 and remain consistent thereafter. The methodology for calculating inactivity rates is as follows.

MCS data suggests that the current average percentage of time that heat pump installation businesses spend installing heat pumps is 48%46. Therefore, it is assumed that individuals qualified to install heat pumps currently spend 48% of their time installing heat pumps. Based on expectations from the sector about the growth rate of their work, the report models a growth rate in labour utilisation of 8.4% per year until 2028 which remains constant thereafter at 72%47.

Levels of awareness of air and ground source heat pumps remain high and are in line with levels reported in Winter 2025 (78% for air source and 73% for ground source). 26% of owner-occupiers said they were likely to install or already had an air source heat pump, up from 22% in Winter 2025. A lower proportion said they were likely to install or already had a ground source heat pump (17%); this also increased from Winter 2025 (12%). Over the long term, both figures remain above levels seen in Winter 2021. While there was an increase in the likelihood of installing both types of heat pumps, there was also an increase in owner-occupiers saying they would be unlikely to install air source heat pumps (up to 46% from 41% in Winter 2025) and ground source heat pumps (up to 51% from 48% in Winter 2025).

Questions are also asked annually, in Winter, about replacing heating systems. In Winter 2024 15% said that they would consider replacing their system while it was still working, and 51% said they would only do so when their current system deteriorates or breaks down (Figure 4.9). These percentages are in line with Winter 2023, but there has been a small decline over time in the proportion willing to replace a working system, from 19% in Winter 2021 to 15% in Winter 2024.

Research shows that 22% of owner-occupiers who were unlikely to install low-carbon heating cite the hassle as an important reason.

For a small minority of homes, characteristics such as age, availability of indoor and outdoor space, planning requirements, lease restrictions, heritage status and rurality, may mean that other technologies will be more suitable.

14% of BUS applicants lived in homes built pre 1900, and 6% were in homes built from 1900-1929 (BUS Evaluation 2025 Interim Report, published alongside this plan).

Overall, the energy efficiency of the English housing stock continued to improve. In the last decade, the proportion of homes in the highest energy efficiency bands A to C increased from 26% in 2014 to over half of all dwellings (56%) in 2024, while the proportion within the lowest bands of E to G decreased (23% to 9%).

The fundamental barrier lies in the conditions of the UK’s housing stock. The UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe and, most likely, in the world [15]. Around 35% of the housing stock (~10 million homes) were built before the Second World War. Around 48% (~13 million dwellings) have uninsulated walls. In the UK, the energy efficiency of a property is assessed through an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC). For a heat pump installation to operate effectively, a minimum rating of band C is recommended to be eligible for the grant. However, over 60% of properties fall below this threshold [15]. These housing conditions indicate that the majority of UK homes require substantial retrofit measures to provide suitable operating conditions for heat pumps [16]. These measures, such as improved insulation, upgraded radiators or underfloor heating, may require significant investment, time and effort from homeowners, creating both economic and behavioural barriers to heat pump adoption [16,17].

Most homes can install a heat pump without needing an upgrade to their electricity network connection. However, heat pump installations can be delayed and this delay can range from a few days to a few months, waiting for connection approval from DNOs. Where upgrades are required to the home’s connection, the installation can be delayed then further ranging from a couple of weeks to months.

We are working together with DNOs and Ofgem to accelerate proactive approaches to unlooping properties which share electricity supply cables with their neighbours (an estimated 14% of UK homes). Homes on looped connections have lower available capacity, which can prevent them from safely installing heat pumps or other low-carbon technologies.

Many Installer Members report persistent challenges with DNO applications, delays and inconsistencies across DNOs. These issues can significantly delay installation timelines and harm consumer confidence.

households install an air source heat pump without needing to submit a planning application in England - removing the 1m rule, with figures from Octopus showing 34% of those who order a heat pump are discouraged or drop out for reasons attributed to planning permission

In confidence, HPA heat pump manufacturing members’ provided data on their current installed factory line capacity for hydronic heat pump production, to serve the EU & UK markets. Data received has demonstrated they can exceed the UK demand for hydronic heat pumps in line with numbers projected in Figure 1 to 2028, whilst continuing to serve the EU market at levels set out in Figure 4, without current factory expansion.

For confidence to be provided for demand spikes resulting from the introduction of new policy initiatives that increases demand above the cumulative impact of the policies outlined in Figure 2, 12-18 months’ notice would be optimal to enable investment and growth in the installed factory capacity to scale up the production of heat pumps in line with the increased numbers needed.

HPA UK also reported that 36% of 2025 sales were UK-manufactured , with that volume up 38% year on year. These figures are useful for industrial and supply-chain stories. S03

“UK-manufactured” follows the association’s definition, which can include assembly or a substantial manufacturing process in the UK. It does not mean every component originated here. Likewise, the share is a share of reported sales, not a measure of British ownership of manufacturers. S09

We are setting a new ambition for at least 70% of heat pumps installed in the UK to be manufactured here by 2035, building on our proud record of boiler manufacture. To support this, the government will triple its investment in heat pump manufacturing to £90 million, alongside considerable investments in skills and training across the entire supply chain.

Some manufacturers have already taken action to prepare for heat pumps. Groupe Atlantic invested £60m (US$80.9m) to upgrade its Hull site to include a heat pump production line and Valliant opened a £40m (US$53.9m) heat pump plant in Derby in 2025.

Country or English region Jan-Jun 2025 Jan-Jun 2026 Change North East 702 666 -5.1% North West 2,338 1,900 -18.7% Yorkshire and The Humber 2,054 1,578 -23.2% East Midlands 2,443 1,678 -31.3% West Midlands 1,810 1,265 -30.1% East of England 3,051 2,714 -11.1% London 832 1,065 +28.0% South East 3,840 3,673 -4.3% South West 3,630 2,908 -19.9% Wales 3,152 1,318 -58.2% Scotland 2,903 2,064 -28.9% Northern Ireland 9 36 +300.0% Source: What Heat Pump calculations from DESNZ Table 1.2. S01

Only Northern Ireland and London saw growth when comparing 2026 up to the end of Q2 and the same period in 2025 in the number of retrofit heat pumps installed. However, for Northern Ireland, this was from low volumes compared to the other regions; from 9 installations in 2025 up to the end of Q2, compared to 36 in the same period in 2026. (See Table 1.2).

While low-cost financing will be available across Great Britain, the £7,500 BUS grant is only available in England and Wales. The Home Energy Scotland grant is also £7,500 for most households, with higher levels available for rural households and for some low-income households through Warmer Homes Scotland. The Warm Homes: Local Grant is only available in England. Northern Ireland’s Affordable Warmth scheme does not include heat pump support.

The Welsh Government offers free energy efficiency improvements to eligible owner-occupied households through the Warm Homes Nest scheme. Nest is available for those on low incomes with a home energy performance certificate of E or below (or D with eligible health conditions) and provides insulation, solar panels and heat pumps, to help lower energy bills and improve health and wellbeing. Up to the end of March 2024, the Welsh Government had invested more than £479 million to improve home energy efficiency through Nest. Over 82,000 households had benefitted from measures in their homes and 210,800 with free energy efficiency advice.

The Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan provides homeowners in Scotland a grant, interest free loan or a combination of both to install clean heating systems and energy efficiency measures. For heating systems such as heat pumps and heat network connections, grant funding of up to £7,500 is available, with an additional £7,500 of funding available as an optional interest free loan. For energy efficiency measures such as insulation, grant funding is available up to 75% of the combined cost of measures up to a maximum grant amount of £7,500. The remainder of funding requested can be taken up as an optional interest-free loan up to the maximum funding limit per improvement. An uplift of £1,500 is available for rural and island homes to both the heating and energy efficiency grants, meaning rural households can claim up to £18,000 in grant funding.

Only heat pumps that provide 100% of heating and hot water requirements are eligible for funding. Hybrid heat pumps, air-to-air heat pumps and exhaust air heat pumps are not eligible for funding.

The New Build Heat Standard will ensure that all new buildings applying for a building warrant from April 2024 will need to install clean heating systems. This also applies to some conversions. The Standard is a requirement set out in law and comes into force from 1 April 2024. The purpose of the New Build Heat Standard is to make sure that any new buildings are future-proofed by using clean heating systems which will not require future retrofit.

We wanted Parliament to scrutinise the Bill with the latest information, including the UK Government's Warm Homes Plan. That plan has been delayed and, with little time left in this parliamentary session, we therefore concluded that the Bill should be paused.

We intend to introduce the Bill once the Scottish Parliament returns after the Scottish Election in May 2026. In accordance with democratic processes, plans will need to take into account the outcome of the 2026 Scottish election.

The Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme (NISEP) provides grants to homeowners and private tenants to install energy efficiency measures including heat pumps and insulation. NISEP schemes have consistently reduced energy consumption and carbon emissions across Northern Ireland, with priority given to low-income households and fully funded options for vulnerable customers. The Affordable Warmth Scheme also provides grants for energy efficiency improvements, specifically for low-income private renters and owner-occupiers. The new Warm Healthy Homes Scheme is currently under development and will replace the current Affordable Warmth Scheme when it ends. The new scheme will offer a range of energy efficiency measures including insulation, ventilation and heating systems with a phased approach to low-carbon heat and other renewable technologies.

This year the next steps include consulting on financial options and developing a high-level scheme design, and then next year legislating, prior to launch.

Table 4: The number of domestic properties recently installing a heat pump, MCS 2019 to 2025 Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Heat pumps 2,193 2,441 4,246 4,953 6,296 7,357 6,411 Commentary: Data for the last full calendar year (2025) indicate that the number of heat pumps installed in Scotland has fallen by 13% when compared to the previous year. However, the number of installations in 2025 was nearly three times higher than in 2019.

Table 6: Percentage of new domestic properties with different types of clean heating system completed in the last year[7] Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Heat pumps 10% 12% 11% 13% 14% 20% 17% Heat networks 4% 2% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% Other electric 2% 2% 3% 2% 6% 7% 6% Total 16% 16% 20% 21% 26% 33% 30% Commentary: Building warrant applications from 1 April 2024 require clean heating systems, so we expect to see the percentage of new domestic properties with such systems increase rapidly over the coming years. Building warrants are valid for three years.

Most recent data: annual average domestic energy prices: in 2025 to 2026, domestic electricity prices were 4.08 times higher than gas. annual average non-domestic energy prices: in 2025, average non-domestic electricity prices were 4.604 times higher than gas. Commentary: Under current market arrangements, gas frequently sets the wholesale electricity price, leading to unnecessarily high costs, which drives fuel poverty and penalises Scottish industry. The fundamental fiscal and policy levers to make a real difference lie with the UK Government, such as energy price setting and market reform. With gas prices almost doubling and oil prices rising significantly following the conflict in the Middle East, the effect on households, industry, and the wider energy system is already being felt. This further exposes the current wholesale electricity market as being unfit for purpose which leaves consumers exposed to high energy costs, driven by volatile natural gas prices. Clean heat investment is likely to be more challenging if electricity remains expensive. Energy market reform is essential, and although we welcome the 21 April 2026 announcement to decouple gas and electricity prices, Scottish Ministers do not believe that the proposed measures go far enough and that further action will be needed to reduce the electricity to gas price ratio.

The top country, Norway, has 632 heat pumps installed for every 1,000 households, closely followed by Finland at 524. What’s more, sales in those countries are still strong, with 48 heat pumps sold for every 1,000 households in 2024 in Norway, and 33 in Finland - the highest levels in Europe. On the other end of the scale, around 3.5 heat pumps were sold for every 1,000 households in 2024 in the UK - 14 times less proportionately than Norway. The UK now has a stock of 19 heat pumps per 1,000 households.

In terms of units sold, France led with 528,000 heat pumps sold in 2025, followed by Italy with 423,000 units sold. In terms of sales per 1,000 households, the leaders were Lithuania with 46 sales per 1,000 households, and Norway with 43. France has the highest amount of installed heat pumps in Europe, with around 7 million, then Italy with just under 5 million. Relative to population size Norway wins with 650 heat pumps for every 1,000 households, and Finland with just above 540.

NOTE: 1. It does not include air to air heat pumps and therefore makes it incomparable to many EU data sources.

Ireland’s electricity-to-gas ratio of approximately 2.68:1 is significantly lower than the UK’s 3.56:1 4. This is because Ireland’s energy tax structure places less burden on electricity and more on gas. The result is that heat pumps are already cheaper to run in Ireland than gas boilers for most households - without any dedicated tariff or special arrangement.